Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Persistent anthrax as a major driver of wildlife mortality in a tropical rainforest

Anthrax is a globally important animal disease and zoonosis. Despite this, our current knowledge of anthrax ecology is largely limited to arid ecosystems, where outbreaks are most commonly reported. Here we show that the dynamics of an anthrax-causing agent, Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, in a tropical rainforest have severe consequences for local wildlife communities. Using data and samples collected over three decades, we show that rainforest anthrax is a persistent and widespread cause of death for a broad range of mammalian hosts. We predict that this pathogen will accelerate the decline and possibly result in the extirpation of local chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) populations. We present the epidemiology of a cryptic pathogen and show that its presence has important implications for conservation

Breast cancer biological subtypes and protein expression predict for the preferential distant metastasis sites: a nationwide cohort study

Introduction Some molecular subtypes of breast cancer have preferential sites of distant relapse. The protein expression pattern of the primary tumor may influence the first distant metastasis site. Methods We identified from the files of the Finnish Cancer Registry patients diagnosed with breast cancer in five geographical regions Finland in 1991-1992, reviewed the hospital case records, and collected primary tumor tissue. Out of the 2,032 cases identified, 234 developed distant metastases after a median follow-up time of 2.7 years and had the first metastatic site documented (a total of 321 sites). Primary tumor microarray (TMA) cores were analyzed for 17 proteins using immunohistochemistry and for erbB2 using chromogenic in situ hybridization, and their associations with the first metastasis site were examined. The cancers were classified into luminal A, luminal B, HER2+ enriched, basal-like or non-expressor subtypes. Results A total of 3,886 TMA cores were analyzed. Luminal A cancers had a propensity to give rise first to bone metastases, HER2-enriched cancers to liver and lung metastases, and basal type cancers to liver and brain metastases. Primary tumors that gave first rise to bone metastases expressed frequently estrogen receptor (ER) and SNAI1 (SNAIL) and rarely COX2 and HER2, tumors with first metastases in the liver expressed infrequently SNAI1, those with lung metastases expressed frequently the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), cytokeratin-5 (CK5) and HER2, and infrequently progesterone receptor (PgR), tumors with early skin metastases expressed infrequently E-cadherin, and breast tumors with first metastases in the brain expressed nestin, prominin-1 and CK5 and infrequently ER and PgR. Conclusions Breast tumor biological subtypes have a tendency to give rise to first distant metastases at certain body sites. Several primary tumor proteins were associated with homing of breast cancer cells.BioMed Central Open acces

High diversity of picornaviruses in rats from different continents revealed by deep sequencing

Outbreaks of zoonotic diseases in humans and livestock are not uncommon, and an important component in containment of such emerging viral diseases is rapid and reliable diagnostics. Such methods are often PCR-based and hence require the availability of sequence data from the pathogen. Rattus norvegicus (R. norvegicus) is a known reservoir for important zoonotic pathogens. Transmission may be direct via contact with the animal, for example, through exposure to its faecal matter, or indirectly mediated by arthropod vectors. Here we investigated the viral content in rat faecal matter (n=29) collected from two continents by analyzing 2.2 billion next-generation sequencing reads derived from both DNA and RNA. Among other virus families, we found sequences from members of the Picornaviridae to be abundant in the microbiome of all the samples. Here we describe the diversity of the picornavirus-like contigs including near-full-length genomes closely related to the Boone cardiovirus and Theiler's encephalomyelitis virus. From this study, we conclude that picornaviruses within R. norvegicus are more diverse than previously recognized. The virome of R. norvegicus should be investigated further to assess the full potential for zoonotic virus transmission

Distribution and Molecular Evolution of Bacillus anthracis Genotypes in Namibia

The recent development of genetic markers for Bacillus anthracis has made it possible to monitor the spread and distribution of this pathogen during and between anthrax outbreaks. In Namibia, anthrax outbreaks occur annually in the Etosha National Park (ENP) and on private game and livestock farms. We genotyped 384 B. anthracis isolates collected between 1983–2010 to identify the possible epidemiological correlations of anthrax outbreaks within and outside the ENP and to analyze genetic relationships between isolates from domestic and wild animals. The isolates came from 20 animal species and from the environment and were genotyped using a 31-marker multi-locus-VNTR-analysis (MLVA) and, in part, by twelve single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers and four single nucleotide repeat (SNR) markers. A total of 37 genotypes (GT) were identified by MLVA, belonging to four SNP-groups. All GTs belonged to the A-branch in the cluster- and SNP-analyses. Thirteen GTs were found only outside the ENP, 18 only within the ENP and 6 both inside and outside. Genetic distances between isolates increased with increasing time between isolations. However, genetic distance between isolates at the beginning and end of the study period was relatively small, indicating that while the majority of GTs were only found sporadically, three genetically close GTs, accounting for more than four fifths of all the ENP isolates, appeared dominant throughout the study period. Genetic distances among isolates were significantly greater for isolates from different host species, but this effect was small, suggesting that while species-specific ecological factors may affect exposure processes, transmission cycles in different host species are still highly interrelated. The MLVA data were further used to establish a model of the probable evolution of GTs within the endemic region of the ENP. SNR-analysis was helpful in correlating an isolate with its source but did not elucidate epidemiological relationships

Pacing and Decision Making in Sport and Exercise: The Roles of Perception and Action in the Regulation of Exercise Intensity

In pursuit of optimal performance, athletes and physical exercisers alike have to make decisions about how and when to invest their energy. The process of pacing has been associated with the goal-directed regulation of exercise intensity across an exercise bout. The current review explores divergent views on understanding underlying mechanisms of decision making in pacing. Current pacing literature provides a wide range of aspects that might be involved in the determination of an athlete's pacing strategy, but lacks in explaining how perception and action are coupled in establishing behaviour. In contrast, decision-making literature rooted in the understanding that perception and action are coupled provides refreshing perspectives on explaining the mechanisms that underlie natural interactive behaviour. Contrary to the assumption of behaviour that is managed by a higher-order governor that passively constructs internal representations of the world, an ecological approach is considered. According to this approach, knowledge is rooted in the direct experience of meaningful environmental objects and events in individual environmental processes. To assist a neuropsychological explanation of decision making in exercise regulation, the relevance of the affordance competition hypothesis is explored. By considering pacing as a behavioural expression of continuous decision making, new insights on underlying mechanisms in pacing and optimal performance can be developed. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland